Bitcoin and Gold Increase Amidst Geopolitical Friction

Cryptocurrency derivatives proponent (@skewdotcom) outlined the gold and Bitcoin price charts since the beginning of 2019. The price of both assets has spiked in the first week of 2020. He hypothesizes that this was caused due to the escalating tensions between the US & Iran.

Bitcoin & Gold in clear focus to start the year as tensions between US & Iran escalate pic.twitter.com/5IwKQlkx8S

— skew (@skewdotcom) January 8, 2020

The Bitcoin price is continuing its increase on January 8, initiating another surge as the tensions escalated further. Therefore, these geopolitical frictions are having a definite impact on both assets. This is not surprising since both of them could be considered safe-haven investments in case of turmoil. Let’s take a closer look at the price of each and analyze them individually.

Gold Versus Bitcoin

The original image in the tweet has different scales for gold (right side) and Bitcoin (left side), giving the illusion that the gold price has increased more than that of BTC throughout 2019. However, that has not been the case, since Bitcoin has increased by 115%, while Gold has only done so by 23%. The image below also shows that the price of Bitcoin has been considerably more volatile than that of gold, which followed a gradual upward trend.

Gold

The gold price has been recovering well since the 2012 all-time high of $1920 and ensuing price decrease. The price reached a low of $1052 in November 2015 and has been increasing since. The current price level is very significant for the future outlook. It is both a previous support area and the 0.618 fib level. A breakout above this level could take the price to $1700. Looking closer at the movement, we can see that the price has created a long upper wick, a sign of buying pressure. In addition, it has yet to reach a close above the current resistance area. Also, the upward move that began in 2016 has started to become parabolic, which is unsustainable in the long-run. Combining this with the bearish divergence in the daily RSI, the most likely movement would be a retest of the $1450 support area, which is also the 0.5 fib level.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin price is very close to the ascending support line that has been in place since 2011. In addition, the recent increase has caused it to move above the 50- and 100-week moving averages (MA), which have made a bullish cross. A similar movement occurred in May 2016, right before the price began an almost two-year-long upward movement. This hypothesis is supported by the halvening angle, since the price has historically increased in anticipation of the event, which is scheduled to be in May 2020. This upward trend would be confirmed by a breakout above the descending resistance line that has been in place since June 24. The resistance line is currently near $9000. To conclude, the price of both gold and Bitcoin seem to be reacting positively to the recent geopolitical tensions. The future outlook is more bullish for Bitcoin than for gold.